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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 18, 2019
Padres vs Brewers
Brewers
-128 at pinnacle
Lost
$128.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): The Brewers have somehow remained not just relevant in the playoff discussion, but are now tied w/ the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.  I say "somehow" because they are in this position in spite of a -24 run differential. It's been a LONG time since they were "in the black" in that regard. Yet they've been able to catch a number of teams "at the right time" recently and it's led to an 11-1 record the L12 games. The latest victim has been a struggling San Diego club that has now dropped six straight after losing here at Miller Park both Monday and Tuesday. 

This was actually a revenge series for the Brew Crew, who got swept out in Petco Park back in June. But things are a lot different now w/ them in the thick of a playoff chase while San Diego is already thinking about 2020. The Padres have managed just two runs on six hits so far in this series and have been held to three runs or less in 9 of their past 14 games. This is good news for Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser, who is looking to bounce back from a rough showing last week in St. Louis. But don't forget Houser had a stretch from August 10th to September 2nd where he allowed just 1 ER in five consecutive starts. He also threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings of relief against the Padres in that aforementioned series back in June. 

The Padres will go with Dinelson Lamet, who continues to make his way back from Tommy John surgery. It hasn't been a good run of results recently for Lamet, who has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. Going back to before his surgery, the Padres are just 7-19 the L26 times he's started. Not only has San Diego lost six in a row overall, they've also lost eight straight road games. These are two teams clearly trending in opposite directions down the home stretch and we'll obviously stay w/ the hot one. 8* Milwaukee 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 18, 2019
Phillies vs Braves
Braves
-139 at betonline
Lost
$139.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): The Braves lost to the Phillies last night, 5-4, as Philadelphia scored all five of its runs in one inning. The loss leaves Atlanta's magic number at 3 to win the NL East while the Phils remain a fringe Wild Card contender, still four games back of the Brewers & Cubs. While Atlanta may not be quite as dominant as their 93-59 record indicates, we've never bought into the Phillies as legit playoff contenders as they have a negative scoring differential on the year, not to mention they were kind of an overrated group last year as well. It could be argued that signing Bryce Harper was a waste of funds given that there hasn't been any kind of noticeable improvement year over year. Look for the Braves to bounce back at home tonight. (This game is on ESPN btw). 

Atlanta will turn to Julio Teheran in this spot, a proven commodity who has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his last 12 starts. Now Teheran did see a stretch of four consecutive quality outings end w/ a rough day in Philadelphia last week where he gave up three home runs - and five runs total - in a losing effort. However, it's a big difference getting to face the Phillies here at home where he has a 10-5 TSR and 2.89 ERA this season. Overall, Atlanta is 47-29 at SunTrust Park in 2019, including a 27-10 record as a ML favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

While Teheran has struggled in his two starts against the Phillies this year (both on the road), the same could be said for Zach Eflin in his three starts vs. the Braves. Eflin took the loss his last time out by allowing three unearned runs in a 3-1 final. His previous two starts vs. the Braves went even worse w/ him allowing 17 runs in just 5 2/3 innings. Only one of those three previous starts came here in Atlanta. The Phillies aren't a great road team, confirmed by a 6-15 record this year as a dog of +125 to +175. They are 29-55 in that role the L3 seasons. 10* Atlanta 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 18, 2019
Nationals vs Cardinals
OVER 7½ -103 Lost
$103.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Over Nationals/Cardinals (1:15 ET): In a series rife w/ playoff implications, these teams have split the first two games w/ St. Louis winning Monday (4-2) and Washington winning last night, 6-2. Both are trying to hold off the Cubs and Brewers right now. In the Cardinals case, for the division lead and for Washington's, it's the Wild Card. St. Louis has a two game edge over both the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Central while Washington is up 1.5 games on both as they continue to lead the Wild Card. Unless both are passed by BOTH the Cubs and Brewers, then both will still be participants in the postseason. We've got what looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup for the series finale this afternoon (Scherzer vs. Wainwright), but I sense that this game will go Over. 

Wainwright has come on strong recently for the Redbirds, going 5-1 w/ a 2.61 ERA and 1.282 WHIP his L7 starts. He's been especially dominant in the last three, going 3-0 w/ a 0.45 ERA and 0.80 WHIP as he's allowed just one run in 20 IP. Wainwright is definitely better at home (as is the case w/ most of the Cardinals' starters) and has a respectable 9-4 career record (3.34 ERA) vs. Washington. So why go Over here? Well, I think Wainwright is due for a bad outing. His recent stretch is as good as he's pitched all season. For the year, he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.378 WHIP, fairly mediocre numbers. Also, the Over is 14-5-2 in Wainwright's L21 starts vs. the NL East, including 3-1-1 vs. the Nats. The Cardinals are 7-3-1 Over off their L11 losses. 

With Scherzer also on the mound, we're getting a low total. Since returning from the DL, Scherzer hasn't been exactly dominant, posting a 3.91 ERA in five starts. He made it through only five innings his last time out (99 pitches) and lost a decision for the 1st time since May 17th. It was also the first time he didn't allow a HR since returning. He gave up three runs in another loss to St. Louis back in May and has a losing career record against his hometown team. Scherzer has yet to go more than six innings since returning to the rotation. The Over is 5-1-1 his L7 road starts vs. a team w/ a winning record. It won't take much for this one to go Over. 8* Over Nationals/Cardinals

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